The Loop’s Office Vacancy Hits 24%: Who Holds the Bag?

As Class B and C office spaces continue to struggle with post-pandemic occupancy rates, a massive restructuring of Chicago's commercial debt is looming. We break down the $4.2B in CMBS loans maturing by 2025.

By Sarah Jenkins • 14 min read
Read the Analysis
Downtown Chicago skyline showing office buildings

The Week in Numbers

$1.2B

CTA Budget Shortfall

Projected fiscal cliff for the transit agency in 2026 once federal pandemic relief funds are fully exhausted.

6.4%

Industrial Vacancy

Rising from historic lows as new speculative construction delivers in the I-55 corridor.

142

Days on Market

Average time to close for multi-family residential assets over 50 units in the city limits.

Latest Deep Dives

Tool: Property Tax Estimator

With the Cook County Assessor shifting the burden toward commercial properties, understand exactly how the latest multipliers affect your specific asset class and neighborhood.

Launch Calculator

The Civic Briefing

Mayoral Agenda

Post-Bring Chicago Home: What's Next for Revenue?

Following the failure of the transfer tax referendum, the administration is eyeing alternative revenue streams including a digital services tax and increased amusement taxes.

Infrastructure

O'Hare's Global Terminal Faces Headwinds

Airlines are balking at the revised cost estimates for the massive terminal redevelopment, threatening to stall the centerpiece of the $8.5B modernization program.

Development

Is Fulton Market Finally Cooling Down?

After a decade of unprecedented growth, leasing velocity in the West Loop submarket has slowed to its lowest point since 2016.

Market Monitor

Asset Class Cap Rate Trend
Class A Office 7.5%
Multi-family (Core) 5.25%
Industrial (Infill) 5.75%
Retail (Grocery) 6.0%

Data via Chicago Commercial Collective, Q3 2024. Represents prime assets in city limits.

Analysis & Opinion

The TIF System Has Outlived Its Original Purpose

Tax Increment Financing was designed to cure blight. Today, it serves as an opaque slush fund for downtown mega-developments while starving neighborhood schools of baseline funding.

Marcus Reed • Editor

Stop Trying to Recreate the 1990s Mag Mile

Michigan Avenue's 30% retail vacancy rate isn't a temporary blip—it's a structural shift. The avenue needs a master plan focused on experiential density, not holding out for department stores.

Elena Costa • Urban Planning